Topic 2 You encounter a tribe who do not reason as we do. Their senses and their memories are every bit as good as ours, but when they notice that all observed emeralds have been green, they conclude that the next emerald they encounter will not be green. In general, they follow a rule of counterinduction.
All observed Fs have been G.
Therefore, the next F we examine will not be G.
You are deep in conversation with a counterinductivist when you are told that a new emerald has just come to light. The two of you are asked to predict its color. You say it will be green; the counterinductivist says the opposite. You point out that the examined emeralds have all been green. The counterinductivist says, I know. That gives us reason to think this one will be different. You say, But induction has almost always worked in the past. The counterinductivist says, Precisely. That gives us reason to think that it will fail in this case. You say, But your track record is terrible; almost all of your predictions have been wrong! And the counterinductivist replies, Exactly. That gives us reason to believe that this time well be right!
Is the counterinductivist irrational (despite his maddening consistency)? If so, say why. If not, say why not. Start your paper off by explaining any key phrases (“induction” “counter induction”) . Then explain in your own words the question in the paper prompt (roughly first 1/3 of your paper). Then develop, and explain, your answer to the questions in italics. (second 1/3 of your paper). Finally, consider a worthy objection to your position. How would you respond to it? (Roughly the last 1/3 of your paper).
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